Who Can Break Into The Premiership Top Four ?
Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool have dominated the top four positions in the premier league over the last few seasons with Newcastle and Everton being the only other two teams to finish in the top four since the 2000/2001 season.
The last team to have a top four finish apart from the “Big four” were Everton back in 2004/5 and they came close to a fourth place finish again last season before being pipped by Liverpool.
So can anyone else break into the top four, or will the dominance of Manchester United, Arsenal. Chelsea and Liverpool continue?
It’s a bit of a catch 22 situation for most of the other teams in the league. Without getting extra revenue from a European run they can’t match the money being spent on top players by the top four clubs. But without spending huge fees on players they can’t attract the quality of player needed to challenge for a top four position.
Spurs have spent a lot of money on players over the last few seasons (although a lot of that has been invested in young players) and they are the bookmaker’s favourites to break into the top four next season. You can get 7/1 (Skybet) on a top four finish for Spurs, but they are a team who have flattered to deceive over the years and before every new season starts they always get touted as challengers or “This will be Spurs year” but it never happens. The odds on offer for Spurs don’t really excite us and we think there are better options on offer.
David Moyes has turned Everton into a well organised side that are difficult to beat and at 16/1 (BET365) they look to have a better chance than Spurs of breaking into the top four.
They will need to strengthen their squad if they are to maintain a challenge though and unless they make some decent signings before the season starts they may just fall short of the top four.
We’d give Aston Villa a chance at 21/2 (Betfair) but if they lose Gareth Barry to Liverpool-which looks likely-they’ll find it hard to replace him and could suffer as a consequence. They played some good football last season and were in a challenging position for a top four finish before fading towards the back end of the season. If they start the season well and get a run going they could have another decent season and look capable of finishing in or close to the top four.
Mark Hughes worked wonders at Blackburn on a limited budget and with the financial backing he has at Manchester City could produce a team capable of making a challenge. It may take him a while to put his mark on the team and this season might be too soon to see them emerge as real top four contenders. The 20/1 (BET365) on offer does look quite tempting though and it could be worth taking a chance on them to improve.
Newcastle have finished in the top four twice since 2000 but they look well short of mounting a challenge at present and at 25/1 (Skybet) look far too short a price.
It’s hard to see too many other teams making a serious challenge, although Portsmouth have done well in the last couple of seasons and could be worth a punt at 40/1 (BET365) especially if Jermain Defoe can keep knocking in the goals for them.
It is hard to see where a challenge is going to come from, but we think Manchester City and Everton look the most likely teams to break the stranglehold of the big four.