Losers Not Winners
The new football season kicks off in August and over the coming weeks we are going to be previewing who we think can provide some value in the English and Scottish Leagues as well as looking at some of the more unusual bets available.
Normally we would look at who is going to win the league or win a match, but today we’re going to concentrate not on winners …but on losers!
We’re going to assess who we think will be relegated from the Premier League next season and see if we can pick the more unlikely options that could give a decent return.
The first thing to do is discount the teams that have no chance of being relegated next season that means, Arsenal, Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool can all be discounted straight away. Teams like Everton, Aston Villa, Spurs, Portsmouth, Blackburn Manchester City and Newcastle would need a horrific downturn in fortune to be involved in the relegation battle, but that still leaves nine teams who in our opinion could find themselves down at the foot of the table come the end of the season.
The teams newly promoted from the championship all have to be considered as possible relegation candidates, although there is normally one of the promoted teams who do quite well in their first season in the Premiership. Hull City are the bookmakers favourites to be relegated and they are 1/3 (Skybet) to go straight back to the Championship. We think they’re going to find things tough in the Premier League but their home form could see them scrape enough points to stay up.
West Brom look better equipped for Premier League survival than Stoke or Hull and the 8/11 (Ladbrokes) doesn’t make much appeal and we think they could finish out of the bottom six.. Stoke 4/9 (PaddyPower) are one of the three teams we think will go down and although the price is quite short it may look decent value a couple of month’s into the season.
Fulham escaped relegation by the smallest of margins last year and they look as if they could struggle once again. They are a workmanlike team at best and while they showed great spirit towards the end of last season they look set to struggle again. The 9/4 (Stan James) looks worth backing.
We think Sunderland and West Ham should be stronger than some of the other teams in the bottom half and at 9/2 (Skybet) and 15/2 (VCbet) respectively they look like relegation outsiders to us and are discounted.
This leaves Bolton, Wigan and Middlesboro to consider. There’s normally one side you don’t expect to be involved in relegation that find themselves in trouble and we think Middlesboro could be worth taking a chance on at 8/1 (Ladbrokes). They haven’t really progressed much in the last couple of seasons and while they are always capable of causing an upset we think they must be considered a real option.
Wigan are hard to beat at home and that could be their saving grace, but they lack real quality and unless they make some really positive signings they look certainties to be involved at the foot of the table again. They are 56/19 (Betfair) to go down and they look worth backing.
Gary Megson finally got Bolton going toward the end of last season, but for a long time they looked more than likely to go down and once again they look to be in for a long hard season. Their lack of a proven goalscorer is a real worry and that could prove very costly as the season progresses. The 3/1 on offer at (VCbet) could be worth a small stake as we think they could find themselves near the foot of the table throughout the season.
Our tips for relegation are:
Stoke
Wigan
Middlesboro