Midweek European Matches
28/4/2008
Author: J Beith
Chelsea meet Liverpool at Stamford Bridge tonight in the Champions League Semi-Final 2nd leg with a place in the Final against Manchester United the prize for the winners. Chelsea go into the game having a slight edge after getting a somewhat fortunate late equaliser at Anfield last week.
Odds tonight seem to be stacked in Chelsea’s favour. They have an unbelievable home record and remain unbeaten at Stamford Bridge for four seasons. Liverpool haven’t won in their last eight visits to Chelsea and they’ve also failed to score in their last four away matches at Stamford Bridge. With stats like that in Chelsea’s favour the 5/4 (Ladbrokes) being offered does look an attractive betting proposition.
But before you go and put your hard earned cash on a Chelsea win there are other factors to consider. Chelsea have never reached a Champions League Final. They have been beaten in all three Semi-Finals they have appeared in previously and Liverpool’s record in this tournament (Champions League winners five times) is only bettered by Real Madrid and AC Milan. It’s this European experience that may well see them progress to yet another final.
Previous European games between the two teams have been extremely close affairs with no more than two goals being scored in a match. With that in mind a draw 11/5 (Paddy power) may well be the best bet tonight. A 0-0 draw 32/5 (Betfair) would be enough to see Chelsea through to the final, but we think it may well finish in a 1-1 scoreline 5/1(Bodog) that will see the game go to Extra-Time. In his short time at Liverpool Fernando Torres has scored some important goals and the 7/1(Ladbrokes) to be the first goalscorer looks value as does Steven Gerard 3/1 ( Partybets) to score anytime.
If Chelsea are to score then it may pay to have a small wager on Michael Ballack who is 4/1 (Paddy Power) to score at any time during the game and a very tempting 11/1 (Bet365) to score the opening goal.
Tomorrow night the two UEFA Cup Semi-Finals take place and bookmaker’s favourites to win the tournament Bayern Munich look to be up against it when they travel to Russia to play Zenit St Petersburg. Bayern could only manage a 1-1 draw at home against an impressive Zenit side and now must score in Russia if they are to make the final. The German Champions do have an excellent away European record against Russian sides having won three and drawn three of their six matches, but they will have to call on all their experience if the are to win this one. The 1/1 (Partybets) being offered for a Bayern away win isn’t great value given how tight this match is and how well Zenit St Petersburg have played at home in Europe this season.
Dick Advocaat’s Zenit side have already had impressive home wins in the tournament. They beat a very strong Villareal team 2-0 and also beat Marseille 1-0. It will be harder for them to keep a clean sheet against Bayern but at odds of 11/4 (Bet365) they look overpriced and could provide some value.
Rangers travel to Florence in the other Semi-Final to play Fiorentina in a match that still hangs in the balance after a 0-0 draw in Glasgow last week. Rangers secured a place in the Semi-Final by drawing 0-0 at home to Sporting Lisbon and then winning 2-0 in Portugal. They also beat Panathinaikos on the away goal rule earlier in the competition after a scoreless draw at Ibrox, and will be hoping they can do the same to Fiorentina. The away win for Rangers is 6/1 (Betfair) and although such a result would be a major shock given their previous away results in the competition it cannot be discounted.
Fiorentina are unbeaten at home in Europe this season, winning four of their five matches and scoring 13 goals in the process. They have some extremely talented players in their side and it’s difficult to see them not scoring tonight no matter how stubborn a defence Rangers put up. Rangers have shown great team spirit and determination throughout the tournament and although they may be technically inferior to the Italian’s they will be hard to break down and this game may go down to the wire.
Fiorentina are 4/6 (Partybets) to get a home win, but we think another upset might be on the cards here and Rangers could get a draw 9/4 (coral) and go on to meet their old boss Dick Advocaat and his Zenit St Petersburg team in the final in Manchester next month.
