FA Cup Final-Betting Pointers
16/5/2008
Author: J Beith
Both Portsmouth and Cardiff City come into the FA Cup Final on the back of some indifferent results. It’s probably fair to say that both teams have taken their eye off the ball in recent league matches to focus on the FA Cup and how much can be read into recent league results remains to be seen. So who is going to win…and more importantly who should we be putting our money on?
Here’s some form pointers to help you make up your mind.
Current Form
Cardiff City have won only one of their last four league matches, with that win coming against Barnsley in the last game of the season. Portsmouth haven’t won any of their last four league games and only managed to score one goal and without the cup-tied Jermaine Defoe for the Final they may find goals hard to come by.
Neither team seems to have an advantage on current form, but it’s worth noting that Portsmouth will have goalkeeper David James and defender Sol Campbell back for the Final. Both players have been missing for the last few games and their return will be a huge boost to the team given how influential both have been in Pompey’s cup run this season.
Cardiff Cup Form
This is Cardiff’s first appearance in the Final since 1927 when they beat Arsenal 1-0 to win the trophy for the only time. So far in this season’s competition they have only conceded two goals and have scored 10. They have already beaten Premier League opposition winning 2-0 away at Middlesbrough. Joe Ledley is their top scorer with 10 goals in total while Peter Whittingham has scored the most goals in Cup competitions with four to his credit.
Portsmouth Cup Form
This will be Portsmouth’s third appearance in a Cup Final, having won the cup once before in 1939. Portsmouth have won four of their five cup ties this season by winning 1-0. They have only conceded one goal in the competition. Their top scorer is Jermaine Defoe with eight goals. David Nugent has score three goals in cup competitions this season with Kanu scoring two. Both have scored once in FA Cup matches.
Cup Final Stats
Since 1994 only two of the losing Finalists have managed to score a goal. Two of the last three finals have gone to extra-time and then penalty kicks. There have been three 1-0 wins since 2000. Millwall, The last team from the Championship to play in a Final were beaten 3-0.
Summary
History is against teams from outside the Premiership winning the competition so Portsmouth at 4/5 (Bet365) are worth backing. Cardiff are 4/1 (PaddyPower) to win and although it’s been a year for underdogs in the Cup, Portsmouth should be too strong for them.
With very few goals likely in the game the draw at 51/20 (VCbet) has to be considered an option. as does the under 2.5 goals 4/6 (Skybet).
With both teams conceding very few goals on their way to Wembley and with the losing finalist having a history of not scoring the 1-0 scoreline looks the bet to be on. Portsmouth are 6/1 (Skybet) to win 1-0, while Cardiff are 10/1 (Coral).
The players we think that are most likely to score are Kanu for Portsmouth at 2/1 (Ladbrokes) to score anytime and if Cardiff are to score it could pay to take a chance on Peter Whittingham at 17/2 (PaddyPower) to score anytime and at 18/1 (Ladbrokes) to score the first goal.
Our prediction is a 1-0 win for Portsmouth with Kanu getting the all important goal.