Euro 2008 Group D Final Matches
With Spain having already qualified from Group D for the quarter –finals it comes down to a straight fight between Russia and Sweden to see who will join them.
Greece v Spain
Greece have only their pride to play for tonight and with Spain having already qualified and likely to make a number of changes this may prove to be their best opportunity to get a win (or at least to score a goal).
The Greeks have been a huge disappointment in this tournament and have looked very ordinary. They lack a cutting edge and to be honest you can’t see how they are going to put enough pressure on Spain to get a result. Even at odds of 4/1 (Bodog) they make limited appeal and we can’t see them beating Spain.
The draw at 13/5 (Partybets) is worth considering given that both sides have nothing to play for, but with Greece looking so toothless in attack they’re unlikely to score and if you fancy a draw it may be better to look for value and take the 0-0 correct score at 15/2 (Partybets).
Even if Spain do make a lot of team changes tonight we still think the 5/6 (Betfair) is a good price. Spain have only failed to score in 3 out of 18 matches and they look as if they will score at least once tonight and that may be enough to win the match.
We like the half time/ full time odds on the Draw/Spain at 7/2 (Skybet) and think the correct score of 1-0 Spain 6/1 (Ladbrokes) is worth a bet.
Xabi Alonso 20/1 (Skybet) could be worth a bet as first goalscorer if Spain do rest players as is likely.
Russia v Sweden
With Sweden only needing a point to qualify a decent betting proposition looks the draw at 27/11 (Betfair). Sweden nearly held Spain to a draw and played extremely well in that match. They’ve looked a decent side and have performed better in their first two games than the Russians.
The 13/8 (VCbet) about them winning the match is a fair price given how they’ve performed so far in the tournament and we wouldn’t try and put anyone off backing them that fancied them to win tonight.
Russian coach Guus Hiddink has never failed to take a team he has managed beyond the group stages of a tournament and there will be plenty of takers about Russia to beat Sweden at 17/10 (Paddy Power) given his impressive record.
The return of Andrei Arshavin for the Russians will also give them a boost and he will be a real threat to the Swedish Defence.
We think this will be a close and exciting match, but one that’s liable to finish level after 90 minutes. We’re taking Sweden to get the point they need to qualify and think a 1-1 correct score 11/2 (Partybets) looks the most likely outcome.
Andrei Arshavin at 10/1 (Skybet) could be worth backing to be the first goalscorer while Henrik Larsson at 17/2 (Coral) also looks a decent price to open the scoring.