Champions League Preview
21/4/2008
Author: J Beith
The Champions League reaches the Semi-Final stages this week with Liverpool playing host to Chelsea tomorrow (Tuesday) and Barcelona at home to Manchester United the following evening.
With Liverpool meeting Chelsea in the Semi-Finals there’s at least one English team guaranteed a place in this year’s Champions League Final…but who is it going to be?
Liverpool and Chelsea have met twice before at this stage in the competition with Liverpool previously edging both games. In 2005 Liverpool won 1-0 on aggregate and last year the tie went to penalties before Liverpool emerged as eventual winners. As previous encounters between the two teams this game looks as if it will be very close. In the six meetings in the competition between the two sides, there have only been three goals scored in total and once again it may only take one goal over the two legs to decide the tie.
Liverpool have an amazing Champions League Semi-Final record reaching the final in their last seven attempts and it’s this pedigree that may well be the deciding factor in the tie. Liverpool know they can reach the Final as they’ve done it before, while Chelsea have lost their previous three Semi-Finals and it must be at the back of their minds that they could fall at the final hurdle once more.
Chelsea have managed to keep clean sheets in seven of their last eight Champions League games, while Liverpool are also unbeaten in their last seven games in the competition scoring 24 goals and conceding only four times. We don’t expect to see many goals in the match, but think Liverpool may just be good enough to sneak a first leg lead. We take Liverpool to win at 11/8 (VCbet) and think a 1-0 victory may be the outcome with the 13/2 being offered by VCBet for a 1-0 correct score a good value bet.
The draw is best priced 2/1 (888sport and others) while a Chelsea win is available at 5/2 (Bet365)
In the other Semi-Final Barcelona are at home to Manchester United in what may prove to be United’s toughest match in the competition. Barcelona’s league form has been indifferent of late and they could only manage a 0-0 draw at the Nou Camp against local rivals Espanyol on Saturday their third consecutive drawn match in the league. They have only managed four wins from their last thirteen games, but their Champions league form remains impressive as they are undefeated in their last 10 games in the competition.
The Catalan giants will be boosted by the return from injury of Deco and Lionel Messi although they are without Henry and Ronaldinho who are still out injured.
United will be hoping Wayne Rooney is fit after injuring a hip in the 1-1 draw with Blackburn. United will sorely miss his quality if he doesn’t recover in time for the Nou Camp match.
Barcelona’s European record against English teams is exceptional having only lost twice in 23 matches against English opposition and despite United remaining unbeaten so far in the competition (as are Barcelona) this is by far their toughest test and they will do well to leave the Nou Camp with their record intact. United have scored in every away game in the competition so far and if they do so here then the away goal could prove vital if they are to reach the final.
We predict a Barcelona win 6/4 (Paddy Power) and with United looking likely to score given the stats, a correct score of 2-1 (Coral and others) in Barcelona’s favour could pay dividends. United are best priced 2/1 with most bookmakers and the draw is best priced 11/5 (Skybet)